Hargreaves Lansdown predicts that even if the Conservatives manage to form the next government, there will be changes in the Treasury and DWP following Simon Kirby and Jane Ellison losing their seats.
Tom McPhail, Head of policy at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “It is clear that the policy centre of gravity has shifted in favour of the Labour position. This probably means if we get a minority Conservative government there will be less austerity, more government spending, more of a tax burden imposed on the wealthy.”
Hargreaves Lansdown say the State Pension ‘Triple Lock’ is now “undoubtedly here to stay until 2020 and possibly for longer”, as the Conservatives were alone in campaigning for its abolition after 2020.
The increase in the personal allowance to £12,500 is still expected to happen, but increasing the higher rate threshold “may not be so easy to deliver now and the tax burden on the wealthy and higher earners is only likely to increase”.
A review of pension taxation is also unlikely, but savers have been warned to expect more slicing of allowances, including the Money Purchase Annual Pension Allowance.